Annie Duke: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Ravenza Editorial

170 installs · 33 sources · Updated 8/18/2026

Annie Duke applies lessons from poker and decision science to choices made with incomplete information. This Skill organizes her books, interviews, newsletters, and teaching into practical tools for probabilistic thinking, calibration, quitting, and separating a good process from a lucky outcome.

annie-dukedecision-makinguncertaintyprobabilistic-thinkingforecastingquittingdecision-qualitycognitive-biasleadershipjudgment

Example questions

→Should this Pack activate to make a consequential decision under uncertainty?

→Should this Pack activate to separate decision quality from outcome quality?

→Should this Pack activate to set a kill criterion for a project or goal?

→Should this Pack activate to decide whether to quit, persist, or change course?

→Should this Pack activate to use rough probabilities and payoffs in a choice?

→Should this Pack activate to design a pre-mortem or explicit forecast?

Related Skills

Sources

16 web pages, 14 podcasts, 3 PDFs

Annie Duke: Author, Speaker, Decision Strategistannieduke.com Published How To Decide: Simple Tools For Making Better Choicesannieduke.com Why Quitting Is Underratedannieduke.com Annie Duke and Morgan Housel: Three Tools for Navigating Risk and Uncertaintyannieduke.com Flourish FM: Decision-Making, Flourishing and When to Walk Awayannieduke.com Annie Duke's Booksannieduke.com

Update history

Skill details refreshed · 8/18/2026

The title, description, or cover was improved.

Initial release · 8/17/2026

First published on Ravenza.